Forex Market Review

  • Democrats vs. Republicans: who is better for the USD? – FBS

    Remember the 2016 election campaign?  Back then, the Republican Donald Trump had not won the elections yet, and the main competition for leadership in the Democratic Party was between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.  The analysts expected the smooth victory of Democrats, and the Trump’s plans on “Making America great again” were seen as quite ...
  • MASTERCARD Stock: Slow But Sure – FBS

    Payment processing vs flying to Mars: Have a look at MasterCard and Tesla share price performance. Both show the same period of observation – the last 7 years, since 2013. Now, Tesla made the rise from approximately $50 to almost $1000 during these years, while MasterCard rose from the same $50 to “only” $350. How good ...
  • Fundamental Analysis – S&P 500: Snowball Effect – FBS

    Blindfolded: On the H4 chart below, we are looking at the S&P 500. As you can see, there was no change to the usual healthy rising trajectory of this American stock market index, except for the period between 24 January and 3 February – and note how quickly the stock market recovered to get back to ...
  • Technical Analysis AUD/USD: 11-year lows – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: -6%, Last day range: 0.6582 – 0.6620, 52-week range: 0.6582 – 0.7203 Go strategic: Rarely a monthly chart adds much value to short- and mid-term assessments of a currency pair performance. But not this time. Currently, the AUD/USD is at 0.6617. The last time it has been this low was March 2009. 11-year low! That ...
  • NZD/JPY: Three Swings – FBS

    Sudden beauty: Rarely can you see such a symmetric cascade of several swings presented by a currency price. NZD/JPY seems to be in a moment of indecisiveness between the support of 70.000 and resistance 71.300. Fundamentals: As you can see, this wavy sideways movement has started at the beginning of February – that’s when, instead of seeing the ...
  • Oil is testing support – FBS

    Forex Analysis: The recovery of WTI last week met resistance in the 54.60 area. The price formed a gap down on the mounting fears about the coronavirus. The spread of the disease may affect the commodity as the demand for it may decline because of the travelling bans. The decline below the support at 51.55 ...
  • GOLD: rising during a disaster – FBS

    Time to worry: Simply put, things are getting worse. The virus keeps spreading, people keep dying, the Chinese economy is close to partial paralysis, the global market is scared. Amidst all this, gold keeps rising in value. In fact, it just woke up for the crisis alert. Have a look at an interesting dynamic visible at ...
  • Levels to trade USD/MXN – FBS

    The volatility in USD/MXN has jumped. The pair is correcting up within the downtrend, which has been in place since September. On Thursday, the price closed above 18.78 (50-day MA). The targets for the correction lie in the 19.015/038 area (100-day MA, the presumed point D of a harmonic “Crab” pattern). Notice, however, that buying ...
  • Forex Trade Signals GBP/USD Tests The Downside -FBS

    GBP/USD had been rejected down from the 200-week MA in the 1.3033 area. Then it fell below the 100-week line at 1.2950. On Wednesday, the pair closed below the 200-day MA (currently at 1.2936). As long as it is trading below this level, the technical picture will remain bearish. There may be some support at ...
  • How low will EUR/USD sink? – FBS

    Economic problems in the euro area: Even if you don’t follow the European news closely, you’ve still probably heard that the region’s economy is going through difficult times. In February, there were many disappointing releases: retail sales contracted by 1.6%, and industrial production fell by 2.1%. Germany, which is the leading economy of the euro area, ...
  • Fundamental Analysis – JPY: Troublesome Times – FBS

    On the outside: We have left the JPY aside for a while, and now it is time to take it back from the shelve and see what’s happening in the Country of the Rising Sun. Unfortunately, nothing promising. Clearly, the extent of trade ties with China puts Japan in the frontline to suffer the damage ...
  • PALLADIUM: $500 to $2,500 – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: +33%, Last day range: $2,506 – $2,592, 52-week range: $1,267 – $2,592 What’s happening? Nothing special, just palladium used to trade at $500 per ounce five years ago, and recently it reached $2,500. Few items in Forex show a similar rising dynamic, if any. Currently, the metal trades at $2,592, which is an all-time ...
  • Trade Signals: NZD/USD: a short-term idea – FBS

    Forex Analysis – NZD/USD has once again found support in the 0.6830 area. The price action on the H1 chart strongly resembles an inverted “Head and Shoulders” pattern. The advance above the neckline at 0.6400 will open the way up to the 0.6415/20 area, where it will once again meet resistance. This is where it ...
  • GOLD: up to $1,600? – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: +4.6%, Last day range: $1,578 – $1,584, 52-week range: $1,265 – $1,612 Will gold rise back to $1,600? Gold trades at $1,585 per ounce – that’s almost as high as it was at the beginning of February, when the unfolding story of the Coronavirus was at the peak level of tension. Today, even with ...
  • Fundamental Analysis – TRY: Questionable Grounds – FBS

    Currency pair of the day: USD/TRY- Performance in 2020: +1.6%, Last day range: 6.0177 – 6.0521, 52-week range:  5.2863 – 6.2860 TRY: 10 years of losing against the USD: The Turkish lira is depreciating against the US dollar. In fact, that has been the case for more than 10 years, with the exception of the second part of 2018. The ...
  • How to trade WTI oil – FBS

    WTI oil has reached our previous targets. On the W1, a big bullish candlestick engulfed the previous bearish one. If the price rises above 52.35, it will likely push up to 53.00 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 decline). The Awesome Oscillator on the D1 is bullish. On the H4, the price has managed to overcome ...
  • GBP/USD Rate Rebound Undermined by Bearish – DailyFX

    BRITISH POUND TALKING POINTS: GBP/USDattempts to retrace the decline from the start of the month, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) undermines the recent rebound in the exchange rate as the indicator continues to track the bearish formation carried over from December. TECHNICAL FORECAST FOR BRITISH POUND: BEARISH: GBP/USD has reversed course ahead of the November low (1.2769), with ...
  • Technical Analysis: USD/MXN: tricky fundamentals – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: -2%, Last day range: 18.5657 – 18.6048, 52-week range: 18.5680 – 20.2528 What’s happening? The USD trades at 18.5740 against the Mexican peso – that’s the lowest the USD/MXN has been to since October 2018. Wait. Peso? Yes, the Mexican peso. Unfortunately, time and intensity of global events, like the Coronavirus disturbing the world, do not let ...