Forex Fundamental Analysis

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  • Democrats vs. Republicans: who is better for the USD? – FBS

    Remember the 2016 election campaign?  Back then, the Republican Donald Trump had not won the elections yet, and the main competition for leadership in the Democratic Party was between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.  The analysts expected the smooth victory of Democrats, and the Trump’s plans on “Making America great again” were seen as quite ...
  • MASTERCARD Stock: Slow But Sure – FBS

    Payment processing vs flying to Mars: Have a look at MasterCard and Tesla share price performance. Both show the same period of observation – the last 7 years, since 2013. Now, Tesla made the rise from approximately $50 to almost $1000 during these years, while MasterCard rose from the same $50 to “only” $350. How good ...
  • Fundamental Analysis – S&P 500: Snowball Effect – FBS

    Blindfolded: On the H4 chart below, we are looking at the S&P 500. As you can see, there was no change to the usual healthy rising trajectory of this American stock market index, except for the period between 24 January and 3 February – and note how quickly the stock market recovered to get back to ...
  • How low will EUR/USD sink? – FBS

    Economic problems in the euro area: Even if you don’t follow the European news closely, you’ve still probably heard that the region’s economy is going through difficult times. In February, there were many disappointing releases: retail sales contracted by 1.6%, and industrial production fell by 2.1%. Germany, which is the leading economy of the euro area, ...
  • Fundamental Analysis – JPY: Troublesome Times – FBS

    On the outside: We have left the JPY aside for a while, and now it is time to take it back from the shelve and see what’s happening in the Country of the Rising Sun. Unfortunately, nothing promising. Clearly, the extent of trade ties with China puts Japan in the frontline to suffer the damage ...
  • Fundamental Analysis – TRY: Questionable Grounds – FBS

    Currency pair of the day: USD/TRY- Performance in 2020: +1.6%, Last day range: 6.0177 – 6.0521, 52-week range:  5.2863 – 6.2860 TRY: 10 years of losing against the USD: The Turkish lira is depreciating against the US dollar. In fact, that has been the case for more than 10 years, with the exception of the second part of 2018. The ...
  • INTEL stock: a dinosaur’s story – FBS

    40 years We are continuing our line of reviews of the IT industry companies stocks, and Intel surely cannot be left aside. See the chart below. That’s what the 40-year story looks like. Of course, you immediately see the peak of the year 2000 asking “What happened there?”. You will be surprised to know – nothing as ...
  • SAUDI ARAMCO stock: desert rose – FBS

    All quiet in Baghdad There are certain ways the market reacts to world events. For example, in times of increased uncertainty or a military conflict (as long as these have a global effect), Forex sees risk currencies get suppressed and lose value. That is because they get abandoned by investors favoring safe-haven assets in pessimistic scenarios. ...
  • NFP: the easy steps for big gains – FBS

    The market awaits the big moves on the release of American job data at 15:30 MT time.  This term comprises important indicators related to the employment of the United States: unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and, of course, non-farm employment change (non-farm payrolls). Together, these indicators provide ideal fuel for making the USD highly volatile. Why trade on the ...
  • Oil and coronavirus: will OPEC help? – FBS

    The beginning of the year was promising for the oil market. US-Iran tensions boosted both major crude benchmarks. Brent touched the highs of September 2019, WTI was at the levels of May 2019. However, the coronavirus caused a plunge of the recently recovered oil. We will consider the reasons behind that and make forecasts for the ...
  • S&P 500: is the grand reversal knocking? – FBS

    The last week of January was quite shaky for the markets, as the news on coronavirus pushed investors to buy safe-haven assets and Treasuries and selling the risky assets. The outbreak was followed by the quarantine in Chinese Wuhan and businesses quickly closing their divisions in China.  A sharp sell-off triggered by the risk-off sentiment ...
  • Oil: sliding down – FBS

    Still bright? “2020 looks like it has upside potential that will also defy some of the gloomy predictions” – these were the words of the OPEC Secretary-General Mohamed Barkindo in November. He added that time that he saw brighter spots in the nearest future for the cartel. A month later, during the OPEC meeting on December 5, ...
  • Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis 11-12-2019 – MultiBankGroup

    Market Briefing • Chinese officials expect President Donald Trump to delay a threatened tariff increase set for Sunday, giving more time to negotiate an interim trade deal that both sides continue to insist is close to fruition despite a series of missed deadlines, according to people familiar with the discussions. • U.S. stocks turned lower in late ...