Forex Fundamental Analysis

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  • Things to know to trade EUR – FBS

    The EUR has been climbing up over a week. Some investors expect a soon resistance, while others have only a bullish prospect. Here below you’ll find main factors that move EUR. ECB meeting on June 4 June 4 is the big day for EUR. The ECB’s head, Christine Lagarde, will make a rate statement and hold a ...
  • Goldman Sachs bets against USD – FBS

    Has the US dollar lost a top position forever? According to Goldman Sachs strategists, now is the perfect time to go short on the US dollar. Perhaps, you’ve noticed it already as USD dropped against almost every currency. Investors prefer EUR and riskier currencies such as AUD, GBP and CAD. Why? The first reason is that economies are ...
  • Why USD/CAD dropped and for how long? – FBS

    CAD will get fresh volatility after BOC statement on June 3 at 17:00 MT time. The Canadian dollar has enormously outperformed the US dollar. Just look at this swing below! USD/CAD broke through the 100-day moving average(MA). Now it’s headed towards the 200-day MA at 1.345. If it manages to break through it, it will dip down ...
  • GBP: expect turbulence in June – FBS

    The British pound entered summer higher against USD and EUR. What’s the reason? Risk-on and weak USD Donald Trump didn’t announce any direct sanctions against China on Friday. Investors interpreted his speech as the sign that the trade deal between the USA and China may not be abandoned. As a result, the market sentiment improved and pushed ...
  • Oil rally takes breath – FBS

    Oil prices have been climbing up for a long time. What have stopped them? Supply-demand question First of all, prices fell on Wednesday after the API reported a surprisingly large crude build. It was reported an 8.7-million-barrel build, while analysts expected a 1.9-million-barrel draw. On Thursday US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 7.9 million barrels from ...
  • EUR/USD: who gets what – FBS

    General The performance of the EUR/USD has started being pretty interesting. Recently, the price breached the local resistance of 1.1000 clearing the way to the lower 3-month resistance of 1.1140. Technically, reaching there is a matter of just one confident leap, which may well occur throughout the day. But staying there would require a mid-term fundamental ...
  • AT&T: a dark horse of a subscription world – FBS

    You’ve probably missed this news while being too busy following Netflix. Here it is: this week, on May 27, the longtime cable TV provider AT&T will launch HBO Max – a new streaming platform. This is indeed a big announcement for a company, which is about to enter a crowded streaming market conquered by Disney, ...
  • GBP: long-term risks – FBS

    The British pound is going through uneasy times, and it is only fair to ask how it will manage this year. Let’s break down the risks that the future holds for this currency to get prepared in advance. Virus fallout So far, getting out of the trap caused by the virus is obviously the main obstacle for ...
  • Fundamental Analysis: How long will oil be down? – FBS

    Oil is the subject of heated debates these days as nobody really knows what to do with the “humiliated” asset. Market traders are scared in the oil markets. Background The oil demand declined by 30% because of the coronavirus lockdown. Saudi Arabia and Russia couldn’t agree about the production cut and they started the so-called oil war ...
  • Fundamental Analysis: AUD: long-term outlook – FBS

    Tactical rise The Australian dollar has been doing pretty well lately. Specifically, the last 6 weeks give an almost identical picture for its performance against the USD and JPY. Observers recognize the strong behavior of Aussie mostly explaining it by the fact that the Chinese economy is already on a steady recovery path “dragging” the Australian ...
  • NETFLIX stock: booming; for how long? – FBS

    Rise amid crisis The daily chart below shows the performance of Netflix stock price since August last year. Its confident rise was checked by the virus but wasn’t stopped. The hit came right after the price renewed its summer highs at $390 per share. After, it lost 25% of its value and in the first week ...
  • Fundamental Analysis: EUR: the eye of the storm – FBS

    Broken glass “Any two points can make a straight line” – that’s a fair reply to the picture below if I intend to convince you that the mid-term outlook for the Euro is duller than anything else. Let’s see the strategic horizon then. It looks like the downtrend rarely has been alternated by an upward trajectory with ...
  • AUD vs. NZD: checking the strengths – FBS

    Despite the common belief that the Antipodean currencies are pretty much similar in their behavior, they still represent two independent countries with different monetary policy tools and economic situation. In other words, if two currencies were equal, the AUD/NZD pair would not make any sense. Luckily for us, the opportunities for this pair exist. This ...
  • Market Analysis: GOLD: dropping to $1,670 – FBS

    Easy there After a “wake-up call” at the end of March, gold has taken a confident upward-looking trajectory. It gradually rose in value from $1,580 to almost $1,750 last week, which made it the apple of the investors’ eyes. Currently, however, it is back down at $1,670, which breaks the previous uptrend and suggests a more ...
  • Fundamental Analysis: CAD: again under pressure – FBS

    These days we are kind of focusing on the USA, China or the UK. As breaking news from these countries are coming out so often that traders hardly keep up with them. Donald Trump alone can shake the market. So, for some time we left Canada aside. And now, there is something to see there! What’s ...
  • Fundamental Analysis: STOCKS-banks reporting – FBS

    Intro As we have announced previously, the earnings reports season has started. The next two weeks will be full of releases and webcasts on corporate performance in the first quarter of 2020. Some of the companies have already reported their results. Knowing in advance that those reports cannot be “good”, let’s see how those financials affected ...
  • Gold is near 1,700. What’s next? – FBS

    Gold has almost returned to its March high after the recent huge pullback. Little wonder, since the movement was supported by fears about the prolonged global recession because of the COVID-19. Gold is a safe-heaven asset in the time of uncertainty. And indeed the current situation is very uncertain: more than 1.8 million people have been ...
  • What does OPEC+ deal mean to crude prices? – FBS

    The world’s top oil producers pulled off a historic deal to cut global petroleum output by nearly a 10th, and they considered this deal as an end to the devastating price war that brought the energy industry to its knees. However, crude oil isn’t inspired by the news much as its price has been drifting ...