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In-depth Technical And Fundamental Analysis For Currencies And Commodities.
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  • Forex Fundamental Analysis: Oil – status update – FBS

    Historical views The chart below shows the 25-year horizon of the WTI price performance. 2002-2003 is when the price was at the current level – $20 per barrel. As such, it’s breaking news. Put in the context, it’s one step away from dropping below $20 to match the severity of the 2008-2009 crisis. Will it be ...
  • Forex Fundamental Analysis OIL: lying low – FBS

    Prepare the stage You cannot avoid the feeling that something is lurking in the oil market. WTI at $22 per barrel, Brent at $25, diminished fluctuation… Some will say oil is just “tired” of moving and wants to rest. In the end, the weekend is coming. But where will it go? And what’s behind the scene ...
  • STOCKS: something is coming – FBS

    Something big As mysterious as it sounds, the truth is quite mundane: there will be further recovery upwards or another drop. The only thing that observers are certain about is that no one really knows what it will be. It helps little though. However, it is useful to weigh the factors standing behind the two possible ...
  • GOLD: back to indifference – FBS

    Defying the natural On the daily chart, we see gold behaving in a very strange way. In December-January, when the US-China trade agreement was announced to be sealed and was finally signed, it was rising (what?). When the virus struck and went “wild” in January-February, gold barely moved a finger (again, what?). That’s not an exaggeration ...
  • Global crisis: now and before – FBS

    As the coronavirus already made its way into the pantheon of the worst world economic crises causes, it makes sense to compare it to some of the previous global troubles we have been to. But before we go into comparing the economic consequences of the current pandemic, let’s compare the human damage of the COVID-19 ...
  • 3 stocks that did not back down to the virus – FBS

    Walmart: standing tall: While a number of stocks lost up to 50% of their value because of the coronavirus, Walmart, although going through obvious turbulence, did significantly better than 99% of its peers. Ironically enough, its performance in 2020 is +1%. Under normal market conditions, it would hardly be a reason to brag. But when the ...
  • 6 specific things about the current market – FBS

    The market is behaving in a rather unusual fashion these days. Below we have gathered the main characteristics of the new trading environment. Check them out in order to be prepared and make good trading decisions. 1. Volatility has increased If we compare the typical daily range of EUR/USD last year and this year using the Average ...
  • NZD/CAD: another bearish candidate – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: -5%, Last day range: 0.8257 – 0.8482, 52-week range: 0.8015 – 0.9281 What’s happening? NZD/CAD trades at 0.8349, testing the lows of Summer-2019, -2018, and -2015. The support for all is at 0.8237. Crossing this strategic threshold paves the way to the 7-year low of 0.8032. Given the current situation for the NZD and ...
  • Three scenarios for trading on coronavirus pandemic – FBS

    The oil prices update fresh lows, safe-havens rise, and stocks keep plunging. It took one month to pull the American stock indices from the all-time highs to the levels of 2017. S&P and Goldman Sachs are now sure that we are heading towards the recession. Central banks are trying to do their best to support ...
  • USD: strongest in three years? – FBS

    On Monday, the Federal Reserve implemented unexpected stimulus measures in order to support the US economy amid the pandemic of a new coronavirus.  The Fed cut the interest rate by 1% pulling it within the range of 0-0.25%. Among other tools introduced by the regulator, there were buying $700 billion worth of Treasury bonds and ...
  • GBP/USD: outlook remains bearish – FBS

    In the current financial turmoil, the British pound doesn’t look like the currency of choice. At least, not versus the US dollar or the Japanese yen. GBP/USD retraced more than 78.6% Fibonacci of the 2019 advance. Last week was the worst for the pair since the Brexit referendum. Despite the fact that the pair is oversold ...
  • STOCKS: trading in the falling market – FBS

    Stocks falling: On the weekly chart, we see a drastic drop that S&P 500 did during the last month. From its all-time high at 3400 reached in February, the American stock market’s major index fell to 2400, losing almost 30% in value. That represents the recent dynamics for most of the major public companies presented in the ...
  • USD/JPY tries to recover – FBS

    After testing the lowest levels since 2016 in the 101.18 area earlier this week, USD/JPY turned up and returned above 105.00. On the H4, the pair formed a higher low and rose above the 50-period MA. Japan announced the unscheduled purchase of 200 billion yen ($1.90 billion) in government debt. The news has weakened the yen. USD/JPY ...
  • EUR/CAD: correction time? – FBS

    After opening the week with a gap up, EUR/CAD formed two inside bars on the D1. This is the sign that the advance has run out of steam. The pair is awaiting the actions and comments of the European Central Bank. The ECB will announce its policy changes at 14:45 MT time and hold a ...
  • GBP/USD: outlook remains bearish – FBS

    In the current financial turmoil, the British pound doesn’t look like the currency of choice. At least, not versus the US dollar or the Japanese yen. GBP/USD retraced more than 78.6% Fibonacci of the 2019 advance. Last week was the worst for the pair since the Brexit referendum. Despite the fact that the pair is oversold ...
  • USD/JPY tries to recover – FBS

    After testing the lowest levels since 2016 in the 101.18 area earlier this week, USD/JPY turned up and returned above 105.00. On the H4, the pair formed a higher low and rose above the 50-period MA. Japan announced the unscheduled purchase of 200 billion yen ($1.90 billion) in government debt. The news has weakened the yen. USD/JPY ...
  • EUR/CAD: correction time? – FBS

    After opening the week with a gap up, EUR/CAD formed two inside bars on the D1. This is the sign that the advance has run out of steam. The pair is awaiting the actions and comments of the European Central Bank. The ECB will announce its policy changes at 14:45 MT time and hold a ...
  • USD/CHF: levels for trading – FBS

    The decline of USD/CHF from February highs to March lows was epic. The pair reached support at 0.9185 (2018 low) and turned up on the W1 (notice that the reversal candlestick at this timeframe still hasn’t been formed) and the D1. The next obstacles on the upside lie in the 0.9400/15 area and at 0.9440 ...
  • Key levels for EUR/USD ahead of NFP – FBS

    EUR/USD has reached December high at 1.1240 and is actively testing levels above it. The picture at the chart changes very fast. Traders don’t really like the USD at the moment, so the pair will easily get to 1.1295 (the line connecting October and December highs). There it will likely meet some resistance ahead of ...
  • Want to choose a currency pair? Consider EUR/JPY – FBS

    If you don’t want to deal with the violent moves of the USD these days, consider crosses, for example, EUR/JPY. The currency pair has been moving down since the start of January as the yen strengthened on the rising demand for safe havens. On the W1 chart, there are many negative signs: the 50-week MA limits ...
  • Will EUR/CAD follow EUR/AUD? – FBS

    The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 17:00 MT time. According to the forecast, the regulator will lower the key interest rate from 1.75% to 1.25%. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key rate from 0.75% to 0.5%. The AUD, however, strengthened versus the EUR. If you look at ...
  • AUD/USD rose after the RBA meeting – FBS

    As the market had expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rate from 0.75% to 0.5%. The Australian dollar rallied versus its US counterpart on the news as the decision had been priced in. In addition, the RBA didn’t signal further rate cuts. On the D1, AUD/USD formed an inside bar on Monday. As ...
  • Oil is testing support – FBS

    Forex Analysis: The recovery of WTI last week met resistance in the 54.60 area. The price formed a gap down on the mounting fears about the coronavirus. The spread of the disease may affect the commodity as the demand for it may decline because of the travelling bans. The decline below the support at 51.55 ...
  • GOLD: rising during a disaster – FBS

    Time to worry: Simply put, things are getting worse. The virus keeps spreading, people keep dying, the Chinese economy is close to partial paralysis, the global market is scared. Amidst all this, gold keeps rising in value. In fact, it just woke up for the crisis alert. Have a look at an interesting dynamic visible at ...
  • Levels to trade USD/MXN – FBS

    The volatility in USD/MXN has jumped. The pair is correcting up within the downtrend, which has been in place since September. On Thursday, the price closed above 18.78 (50-day MA). The targets for the correction lie in the 19.015/038 area (100-day MA, the presumed point D of a harmonic “Crab” pattern). Notice, however, that buying ...
  • Forex Trade Signals GBP/USD Tests The Downside -FBS

    GBP/USD had been rejected down from the 200-week MA in the 1.3033 area. Then it fell below the 100-week line at 1.2950. On Wednesday, the pair closed below the 200-day MA (currently at 1.2936). As long as it is trading below this level, the technical picture will remain bearish. There may be some support at ...
  • Trade Signals: NZD/USD: a short-term idea – FBS

    Forex Analysis – NZD/USD has once again found support in the 0.6830 area. The price action on the H1 chart strongly resembles an inverted “Head and Shoulders” pattern. The advance above the neckline at 0.6400 will open the way up to the 0.6415/20 area, where it will once again meet resistance. This is where it ...
  • GOLD: up to $1,600? – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: +4.6%, Last day range: $1,578 – $1,584, 52-week range: $1,265 – $1,612 Will gold rise back to $1,600? Gold trades at $1,585 per ounce – that’s almost as high as it was at the beginning of February, when the unfolding story of the Coronavirus was at the peak level of tension. Today, even with ...
  • GOLD: back to indifference – FBS

    Defying the natural On the daily chart, we see gold behaving in a very strange way. In December-January, when the US-China trade agreement was announced to be sealed and was finally signed, it was rising (what?). When the virus struck and went “wild” in January-February, gold barely moved a finger (again, what?). That’s not an exaggeration ...
  • 3 stocks that did not back down to the virus – FBS

    Walmart: standing tall: While a number of stocks lost up to 50% of their value because of the coronavirus, Walmart, although going through obvious turbulence, did significantly better than 99% of its peers. Ironically enough, its performance in 2020 is +1%. Under normal market conditions, it would hardly be a reason to brag. But when the ...
  • NZD/CAD: another bearish candidate – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: -5%, Last day range: 0.8257 – 0.8482, 52-week range: 0.8015 – 0.9281 What’s happening? NZD/CAD trades at 0.8349, testing the lows of Summer-2019, -2018, and -2015. The support for all is at 0.8237. Crossing this strategic threshold paves the way to the 7-year low of 0.8032. Given the current situation for the NZD and ...
  • USD/CHF: two-year lows – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: -0.8%, Last day range: 0.9550 – 0.9584, 52-week range: 0.9520 – 1.0236 What’s happening? The USD dropped to its two-year lows against the Swiss franc. 0.9577, where it is now, was last visited by the USD/CHF in March 2018. That doesn’t change much in historical terms (this level is an average the currency has ...
  • EUR: another winner in the field – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: -0.6%, Last day range: 1.1037 – 1.1184, 52-week range: 1.0780-1.1515 Euro’s winning spree: The euro has been in decline against the US dollar since the very beginning of 2018. That means, for more than two years. Now, this long-term trend is put to a test. Who would know that it would be Coronavirus that ...
  • JPY: Forex reconquest – take two – FBS

    Key indicators: Last day range: 107.36 – 108.37, 52-week range: 104.43 – 112.40 What’s happening? We have spoken about the JPY’s return already, and now we need to speak of it again. Why? Look at the chart. There is hardly any other currency on the Forex market against which the USD lost so much value in the last weeks. The ...
  • JPY: the Forex market reconquest – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: +2.4%, Last day range: 109.55 – 110.44, 52-week range: 104.46 – 112.40 Yellow-zone alert: Now that the Coronavirus is reducing its pace of expansion inside China and increasing its conquest globally, the markets woke up to the probability of having it at a pandemic level. The USD is no longer a bastion of safety as ...
  • Why did gold turn down? And did it really? – FBS

    XAU/USD is consolidating after spiking to the 7-year high at $1,689. If we compare the current price action on the D1 with what was seen in January (the price spiked up and then consolidated without declining much), we’ll see that there are more candlesticks with long upper shadows – a sign that there are sellers ...
  • Technical Analysis AUD/USD: 11-year lows – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: -6%, Last day range: 0.6582 – 0.6620, 52-week range: 0.6582 – 0.7203 Go strategic: Rarely a monthly chart adds much value to short- and mid-term assessments of a currency pair performance. But not this time. Currently, the AUD/USD is at 0.6617. The last time it has been this low was March 2009. 11-year low! That ...
  • NZD/JPY: Three Swings – FBS

    Sudden beauty: Rarely can you see such a symmetric cascade of several swings presented by a currency price. NZD/JPY seems to be in a moment of indecisiveness between the support of 70.000 and resistance 71.300. Fundamentals: As you can see, this wavy sideways movement has started at the beginning of February – that’s when, instead of seeing the ...
  • PALLADIUM: $500 to $2,500 – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: +33%, Last day range: $2,506 – $2,592, 52-week range: $1,267 – $2,592 What’s happening? Nothing special, just palladium used to trade at $500 per ounce five years ago, and recently it reached $2,500. Few items in Forex show a similar rising dynamic, if any. Currently, the metal trades at $2,592, which is an all-time ...
  • GBP/USD Rate Rebound Undermined by Bearish – DailyFX

    BRITISH POUND TALKING POINTS: GBP/USDattempts to retrace the decline from the start of the month, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) undermines the recent rebound in the exchange rate as the indicator continues to track the bearish formation carried over from December. TECHNICAL FORECAST FOR BRITISH POUND: BEARISH: GBP/USD has reversed course ahead of the November low (1.2769), with ...
  • Technical Analysis: USD/MXN: tricky fundamentals – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: -2%, Last day range: 18.5657 – 18.6048, 52-week range: 18.5680 – 20.2528 What’s happening? The USD trades at 18.5740 against the Mexican peso – that’s the lowest the USD/MXN has been to since October 2018. Wait. Peso? Yes, the Mexican peso. Unfortunately, time and intensity of global events, like the Coronavirus disturbing the world, do not let ...
  • Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP: the battle is on – FBS

    Key indicators: Performance in 2020: -1.7%, Last day range: 0.8296 – 0.8388, 52-week range: 0.8276 – 0.9324 What’s happening? EUR/GBP is falling. Why? Mainly, for the same reason, the EUR/USD is falling. During our analysis, we saw that there are multiple reasons for the USD to get stronger and none for the EUR. Almost the same applies to the ...
  • Forex Fundamental Analysis: Oil – status update – FBS

    Historical views The chart below shows the 25-year horizon of the WTI price performance. 2002-2003 is when the price was at the current level – $20 per barrel. As such, it’s breaking news. Put in the context, it’s one step away from dropping below $20 to match the severity of the 2008-2009 crisis. Will it be ...
  • Forex Fundamental Analysis OIL: lying low – FBS

    Prepare the stage You cannot avoid the feeling that something is lurking in the oil market. WTI at $22 per barrel, Brent at $25, diminished fluctuation… Some will say oil is just “tired” of moving and wants to rest. In the end, the weekend is coming. But where will it go? And what’s behind the scene ...
  • STOCKS: something is coming – FBS

    Something big As mysterious as it sounds, the truth is quite mundane: there will be further recovery upwards or another drop. The only thing that observers are certain about is that no one really knows what it will be. It helps little though. However, it is useful to weigh the factors standing behind the two possible ...
  • Global crisis: now and before – FBS

    As the coronavirus already made its way into the pantheon of the worst world economic crises causes, it makes sense to compare it to some of the previous global troubles we have been to. But before we go into comparing the economic consequences of the current pandemic, let’s compare the human damage of the COVID-19 ...
  • 6 specific things about the current market – FBS

    The market is behaving in a rather unusual fashion these days. Below we have gathered the main characteristics of the new trading environment. Check them out in order to be prepared and make good trading decisions. 1. Volatility has increased If we compare the typical daily range of EUR/USD last year and this year using the Average ...
  • Three scenarios for trading on coronavirus pandemic – FBS

    The oil prices update fresh lows, safe-havens rise, and stocks keep plunging. It took one month to pull the American stock indices from the all-time highs to the levels of 2017. S&P and Goldman Sachs are now sure that we are heading towards the recession. Central banks are trying to do their best to support ...
  • USD: strongest in three years? – FBS

    On Monday, the Federal Reserve implemented unexpected stimulus measures in order to support the US economy amid the pandemic of a new coronavirus.  The Fed cut the interest rate by 1% pulling it within the range of 0-0.25%. Among other tools introduced by the regulator, there were buying $700 billion worth of Treasury bonds and ...
  • STOCKS: trading in the falling market – FBS

    Stocks falling: On the weekly chart, we see a drastic drop that S&P 500 did during the last month. From its all-time high at 3400 reached in February, the American stock market’s major index fell to 2400, losing almost 30% in value. That represents the recent dynamics for most of the major public companies presented in the ...
  • What to expect from the ECB today? – FBS

    Today is the day X for the European markets as the European central bank is releasing its monetary policy decision at 14:45 MT time. This is also the time when a relatively new ECB president Christine Lagarde is going to prove her strengths as a leader of the European regulator amid the economic slowdown. With ...
  • AUD: facing the recession – FBS

    The AUD: As we have seen before, JPY is the best contrast to observe AUD’s performance. In the monthly chart below, it leaves little doubt. Having dropped to almost 64.00 recently, AUD/JPY has now only 56.00 ahead in the course of the downward movement – that’s the strategic support left in the years 2000 and 2008. ...
  • S&P 500: recovery from the shock – FBS

    What happened? The performance of the US stock market has been quite dramatic this week. S&P 500 dropped by 7% four minutes after the US trading session started on Monday. Then trading resumed, but the index stayed in the negative territory. Stocks fell on the growing fear of the economic impact of the coronavirus and the ...
  • Opportunity Monday: trading in times of volatility – FBS

    The markets have definitely awakened from the sleeping mode, in which they have spent the most part of 2019. These days we see great moves in currency pairs, commodities, and indexes. Let’s review the most interesting topics and instruments that will be in the center of traders’ attention this week. USD is out of favor The solid ...
  • Top 4 stocks to invest amid the coronavirus outbreak – FBS

    Yes, coronavirus is indeed causing troubles to the global economy. More importantly, the media makes everything looking even worse. While chasing more views and sensations, the news sources create shocking headlines, resulting in panic among people. And while sheep avoid turning to an uncertain direction and making investments, real professionals consider these times as the ...
  • USD: don’t be sad, Mr. President! – FBS

    The Fed: In general, the US response to the virus hasn’t shifted beyond the purely medical field to secure border control and treat those who are discovered as infected by the coronavirus. At the same time, the position of the Fed lately has been pretty inert and followed the scheme “we will not move a step ...