Focus of the week: currencies, oil & gold
The market keeps fighting through uneasy times. Today, however, the picture seems to be sunnier than at the beginning of the week. Currency table is relatively balanced in favor of the US dollar, the oil and gold prices made a step up.
Strategic uncertainty supports the US dollar, making it a good bet in the long term. In the short-term, however, it does not win all the time against other strong currencies. USD/JPY, for example, is the only pair where the USD moved up against its counterpart recently. In the meantime, it has stepped back before GBP, AUD, and EUR in the very recent hours.
Resistance: 107.87; 108.04
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is testing the resistance of 107.87 which is there since April 17. There is a high likelihood that it will be the barrier that will make the price bounce downwards. However, if the bullish momentum is strong enough, it will be broken – in this scenario, we will have a sure sign that 108.04 would the next tactical upside target.
Oil is now in a recovery phase. WTI trades at $15 per barrel, and Brent at $22, which is a good sign. Both are approaching the level from which the collapse on Monday and Tuesday respectively took place. That means we will have a good checkpoint for the oil price to see if it is going to cross that barrier further upwards.
WTI’s picture looks promising but needs verification because there are no fundamentals for optimism. The current uptrend is aiming upwards at the closest resistance at $17.50 – that’s where it fell from when going to the negative zone. Crossing that level would mean oil is likely to stabilize above that level. Failing to do that would mean further unpredictability and vulnerability.
XAU/USD is back above $1,700. In fact, it reached as high as $1,718 but retraced downwards just a bit. Currently, it is on a rising trajectory and may well challenge the heights of $1,740.
Resistance: 1,718; 1,740
The upswing which starts in the area of $1,663 for gold and reaches the current $1,718 is well visible. If gold price breaks this uptrend in any manner, it would mean that it’s not ready yet to aim higher and would go sideways across the current level.